Top economist say there’s still a “very plausible” path for the US economy to avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening of interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties.
Further, the banks put a 35% probability that the world’s largest economy will enter a downturn in the next 12 months, well below Wall Street’s consensus.
Depsite all this, the job market still remains booming. On Friday of last week, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the labor market continues to be strong. The US added 261,000 payrolls in October, above the estimated amount.
With such mixed signals, CEOs aren't feeling too good about the economy. 91% of chief executives in the US believe the country is heading towards a recession in the next 12 months, according to a KPMG survey, and just a third of CEOs believe the downturn will be short and mild.
However, strategist are saying that if a recession does happen, it would be "much milder" compared to the one seen during the pandemic and the great financial crisis.